People often ask me if i think the situation is getting any better, but unfortunately i don’t think it is. Let’s look at the numbers for this year, keeping in mind that the yearly average API over the last years was nearly constant, around 100.

Average API jan-may 2008: 99.5 (so not better or worse than previous years)
Average API jan 2008: 83
Average API feb 2008: 73
Average API mar 2008: 109
Average API apr 2008: 103
Average API may 2008: 131 (until 27th)

So as described below, the months of January and February gave us some hope that the situation was improving, but April and May are showing us that’s too optimistic.

I used to collect the daily API values from the MEP/SEPA website, but it seems their list function at the bottom of the page is not working anymore, what a pity (or can somebody tell me what i am doing wrong?). So i had to go to the Beijing EPB website and manually retrieve all daily values… below a sample of today, showing several stations went off the scale.

Apologies for not posting recently and not answering comments/questions, busy here with newborn baby!

You can see in this graph that February was an exceptionally good month, with an average API of only 73, well below the yearly average of 100. This article reports that 10 key polluting factories in Beijing, Hebei and Tianjin have already been closed to improve the air quality ahead of the Olympic games, and the provinces of Shandong, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are also being involved in the efforts.

Before we get to optimistic, let’s remember the monitoring station shift described on this blog before, which will make it easier to get lower API values without actually getting better air quality. BOCOG environmental director responded to this story with the statement that the stations ‘were not moved’, but as we have demonstrated, the list of 27 stations simply has changed. In fact it is not so complicated for anyone who wishes to see for themselves; an effort this person obviously did not make. According to China Daily, 66% of Beijingers recently polled about the air quality, think it has improved. Probably the poll took place in February, a stroke of luck.

United States triathletes wore masks in China last September, but removed them before competing. They stepped off the bus looking like a group of incredibly fit surgeons or, as one triathlete put it, a gathering of Darth Vaders.

The team’s lead exercise physiologist mr Wilber has a lot of interesting things to say,

He is also testing possible Olympians to see if they qualify for an International Olympic Committee exemption to use an asthma inhaler. And, in what may be a controversial recommendation, Mr. Wilber is urging all the athletes to wear specially designed masks over their noses and mouths from the minute they step foot in Beijing until they begin competing…[he] has traveled to Beijing three times to measure the pollution at each Olympic site. Along the way, he has bumped into some of his colleagues, all stealthily measuring the same air. He said none of them wanted to rely on the statistics provided by Chinese officials. Mr. Wilber said his numbers were disturbingly high, with levels of certain pollutants “significantly higher” than they were at the 2004 Athens Games and at the 1984 Los Angeles Games. [my emphasis, Tom]

And some star athletes might simply not show up:

The marathon world-record holder Haile Gebrselassie, who has allergies, and the world’s No. 1 women’s tennis player, Justine Henin, who has asthma, have expressed reservations about competing in the Olympics for fear that pollution will exacerbate their breathing problems.

This is also a reminder that although Beijing’s main problem is PM10, the other common pollutants (SO2, NOx, CO,O3) are probably also at alarming levels, but just not as much in view as the PM10 because that is the worst problem. For example i wouldn’t know where to find daily figures of SO2 measurements; it seems they are not published, only the general API is available.

Another interesting observation from today’s list of major Chinese cities; about half of the cities are reporting SO2 as main pollutant (the other half reports PM10 as usual). This has most probably something to do with the cold weather and the need to burn more fossil fuels for heating, and their high sulphur content. 

And for the Green Olympics:

..Beijing will almost definitely remove more vehicles from the streets and suspend coal-burning plants in suburban areas and neighboring provinces for about two months [my emphasis, Tom] starting just prior to the opening ceremony of the Games. Beijing also adopted stricter fuel emissions from Tuesday [1 Jan, Tom] to ensure its cars now meet the EURO IV standard. Power plants in Beijing will replace nitrogen oxide-reduction systems and the city is retrofitting its 1,400 gas stations to curb petroleum vaporization.

Let’s hope this measure will be implemented strictly; i heard rumours last year that cheaper, less clean fuels available in the surrounding provinces do find their way to Beijing..

According to Reuters, the cost of the new fuel is 0.4rmb higher per liter, but i guess that after the 10% price increase of fuel in Nov 2007, and the current worries about inflation, the fuel price will not further go up at petrol stations in Beijing. The city continues to drive on subsidised fuel.

Paris has created an ‘individualised’ public transport system with its famous Velib program; 15.000 bikes for rent at 1.200 stations across the city, another huge success and inspiration for cities around the world, including Beijing as i mentioned here. Bike use in Paris is also stimulated with new bike lanes, leading to a 48% increase over the past 5 years.

“Paris and London have demonstrated that effective leadership can result in real change,” said selection committee member Cornie Huizenga, executive director of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia) Center. “Asian city authorities should carefully look at the experience of Paris and London and decide what can be replicated in their cities. We hope that this will help to bring back the award to Asia in the near future.”

..the city changed its method for measuring pollution in 2006. In particular, officials stopped including readings from two stations in polluted areas and began using readings in three other stations in less polluted locales. Without this switch, Beijing would have fallen far short of its goals in 2006 and 2007 for the number of days that met national air quality standards, according to the study.

Mr Steven Andrews, the author of the study (in his original Wall Street Journal op-ed) also mentions the serious flaws in the Blue Sky days claims as i reported six weeks ago here. It seems the NYT contacted the relevant Chinese authorities to comment on this, but the only response they got was that the situation is improving visibly.

Mr. Andrews also found that ratings began to change after officials set targets for every monitoring station in the city. He said this political imperative coincided with a rising number of days that rated just below the break point of 101 to qualify as a Blue Sky day.

But it seems that people at the top of the system start to see the value of reliable data; there will be a national pollution survey starting in February 2008, calling for ‘true, credible’ data, and no officials will be punished for bringing bad news(!). Unfortunately the results of the survey will only be publicly available in 2009, way after the Olympics…